Will ECB main refi rate be below 2.75% by Jul 16, 2026?
The European Central Bank's main refinancing rate — the headline interest-rate benchmark for the euro area.
ECB sets this rate at meetings every six weeks. It's currently descending in 25 bp steps from the 4.5% pandemic-cycle peak as inflation cools. Market consensus expects further cuts but recent inflation prints have been sticky, leaving each meeting genuinely uncertain.
Source · ECB Statistical Data Warehouse, agent re-publishes daily 14:00 UTC.
Razor-line. Current rate is exactly 2.75% — this market resolves on whether ECB cuts at the next meeting.
At 2026-07-16 00:01 UTC, the market reads Attestation.valueAt(0xf2cc4c…3cf0bd, 0x84C7…2E5e, 1784160074). If the returned value < 275 %, YES wins. Otherwise NO wins.
No human resolves this. The contract reads the value, applies the comparator, settles. If the agent never attested at or before expiry, the market sits unresolved until one does.