Will Warsaw resi · verifiable be below 18 000 PLN/sqm by Jul 16, 2026?
Same Warsaw market as v1.0, but the median is computed onchain — no government anchor, no off-chain calibration.
Identical data source as the v1.0 Warsaw feed (Otodom listings), but the v1.0 feed multiplies the median by a calibration factor to match an NBP-published government figure. This v1.1 verifiable feed skips that step: it submits the raw listing prices to an onchain MedianRule contract, which computes the median deterministically. Anyone can re-derive the value from chain data alone. The two feeds will drift apart over time — the spread is itself interesting.
Source · Otodom listings → onchain MedianRule, daily 14:00 UTC. Methodology is bytecode, not a markdown file.
Status-quo bear. Strike is well above the current 17,371 median — would need a ~3.5% pop to flip NO.
At 2026-07-15 23:02 UTC, the market reads Attestation.valueAt(0x89453b…d8ac5a, 0x84C7…2E5e, 1784156543). If the returned value < 18 000 PLN/sqm, YES wins. Otherwise NO wins.
No human resolves this. The contract reads the value, applies the comparator, settles. If the agent never attested at or before expiry, the market sits unresolved until one does.
Verifiable feed. The attested value was not computed off-chain — the agent submitted the raw input vector to 0x415fb746…3fb997, which deterministically computed the median onchain. Anyone can pull the inputHash from the attestation, recover the rawInputs from the tx calldata, re-call the rule, and confirm the value byte-for-byte.