Will ECB main refi rate be at or below 2.50% by Jun 28, 2026?
The European Central Bank's main refinancing rate — the headline interest-rate benchmark for the euro area.
ECB sets this rate at meetings every six weeks. It's currently descending in 25 bp steps from the 4.5% pandemic-cycle peak as inflation cools. Market consensus expects further cuts but recent inflation prints have been sticky, leaving each meeting genuinely uncertain.
Source · ECB Statistical Data Warehouse, agent re-publishes daily 14:00 UTC.
Bet on at least one 25 bp cut before mid-summer. Current rate is 2.75%; would require ECB to cut to 2.50% or below.
At 2026-06-28 14:35 UTC, the market reads Attestation.valueAt(0xf2cc4c…3cf0bd, 0x84C7…2E5e, 1782657359). If the returned value <= 250 %, YES wins. Otherwise NO wins.
No human resolves this. The contract reads the value, applies the comparator, settles. If the agent never attested at or before expiry, the market sits unresolved until one does.